成品油消费税改革的供求效应

Research on Supply and Demand Effects of Refined Oil Consumption Tax Reform

消费税改革对于促进经济社会发展具有重要作用。成品油消费税的改革必将通过税负与税负归宿的变化影响成品油的供求,进而影响绿色经济的发展。本文在成品油消费税税负归宿理论分析的基础上,实证检验了成品油消费税改革的供求效应。实证表明:提高成品油消费税的税率,对成品油的供给短期内有较明显的抑制作用,但长期作用不明显;而对成品油的需求也有一定的抑制作用,主要体现在企业消费者的需求有所下降,但对居民汽油消费的抑制作用较弱。然而,若将消费税的征税环节从生产环节调整至消费环节,不仅对消费的影响更为明显,会直接减少成品油的需求量;而且税率上调的政策效果也会事半功倍,优于在生产环节课征的政策效果。

Consumption tax reform can play an important role in promoting economic and social development. By affecting the tax burden and tax incidence, refined oil consumption tax reform can influence the supply and demand of refined oil, and then the green economy development. On the basis of theoretical analysis of consumption tax incidence, this paper examines the supply and demand effects of refined oil consumption tax reform. The empirical results show that increasing the tax rate has a significant inhibitory effect on the supply of refined oil in short term, but the long-term effect is not obvious. As for the demand side, increasing the tax rate also has an inhibitory effect to enterprises which is reflecting in demand decline, but such inhibitory effect to consumers is weak. However, if the taxation link changes from production to consumption, it will have a more obvious effect on consumption by decreasing the oil demand directly. In that case, the policy effect of arising tax rate will yield twice the result with half the effort, which is superior to the policy effect in production level.