税收政策影响居民消费水平的区域效应研究——基于省级面板数据的分位数回归分析

Research on Regional Effects of Tax Policies on the Consumption Level of Residents-A Quantile Regression Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data

利用1999--2012年样本数据,采用空间聚类分析方法研究了中国省域税收收入空间聚类分布格局以及通过分位数回归模型分析了税负水平、税收结构和税收不确定性对我国居民消费水平在不同分位点上产生的区域效应。实证结果表明,在参数异质性假设条件下,税收负担挤入居民消费水平,而税收不确定因素挤出居民消费水平;商品税、所得税与财产税对居民消费水平的影响,在不同税收收入水平下,呈现出具有差异性的区域空间特征。

Using the sample data from year 1999 to 2012,this paper employs the spatial clustering analysis method to study the characteristics of spatial distribution of the provincial tax revenue in China,and analyzes the regional effects of tax level,tax structure and tax uncertainty on the consumption level of residents through the quantile regression model.The empirical result shows that under the assumption of parameters heterogeneity the tax burden crowds in the consumption level of residents while the tax uncertainty crowds it out.Besides,the effects of the commodity tax,income tax and property tax on the consumption level of residents present differential regional spatial characteristics at various levels of tax revenue.