基于气候适宜度的河南省夏玉米产量预报研究

Research of summer maize yield forecasting based on climate suitability in Henan

从夏玉米不同发育阶段所需的光、温、水等生物学特性出发，构建了河南省夏玉米气候适宜度模型，计算了1980—2007年全省13个主产省辖市夏玉米生长季综合气候适宜度；根据各阶段气候适宜度与夏玉米产量的相关关系，建立了以旬为步长的夏玉米产量预报模型，并利用2008—2012年数据进行预报检验。结果表明，气候适宜度指数与夏玉米产量呈显著正相关，气候适宜度变化能较为客观地反映夏玉米产量水平及其动态变化。1980—2007年各省辖市模型回代检验准确率为87．5％～94．6％，全省平均为91．8％，2008—2012年各省辖市预报准确率逐旬平均为92．3％～98．4％，全省平均为96．0％，能基本满足农业气象业务服务需求。

The climate suitability model of summer maize in Henan was established based on the bio- logical characteristics such as sunlight, temperature and water in different growth stages. The climate suitability of summer maize growing season in 13 cities in Henan was calculated from 1980 to 2007. According to the relationship between climate suitability and summer maize yield in different growth stages, the yield forecasting models by step of 10 days were established. At last the forecasting accura- cy rates were tested using the data from 2008 to 2012. The results showed, there was a significant pos- itive correlation between climate suitability and summer maize yield. The climate suitability could re- spond the level of summer maize yield and its dynamic change. From 1980 to 2007, the return test ac- curacy rates in every city were from 87.5% to 94.6% , with an average of 91.8%. From 2008 to 2012, the forecasting accuracy rates in every city were from 92. 3 to 98.4% , with an average of 96.0%. It could meet basic needs for agro-meteorological operation and service.