基于ECM模型的河南三化协调研究

Research on the coordination of the three based on the EC M

依据1980—2012年的统计数据,运用ADF检验、协整分析,建立误差修正模型对三化之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明,城镇化及工业化对农业现代化在长期及短期内均具有正向的促进作用,并在此基础上提出了促进三化协调发展的对策和建议,对河南省经济发展具有重大意义。

Based on the statistics from 1980 to 2012, this paper analyses the relationship between in- dustrialization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization（the Three） in Henan province by means of ADF test, cointegration analysis, and error correction model. The results show that the urbanization and industrialization have positive effects on promoting the agricultural modernization in the long term and short term, and on that basis, some countermeasures and suggestions about how to motivate the co- ordination of the Three are put forward, which is of great significance to the economic development of Henan Province.