摘要
目的在于检验中国对外出口、进口和经济体的经济增长之间是否存在长期均衡关系,并研究汇率及其汇率风险等外生政策因素对于中国对外出口的作用.主要研究结论如下:在所研究的11个中国主要贸易伙伴中,除作为城市经济体的新加坡和中国香港外,均存在上述长期均衡关系,并且均衡关系因消费拉动型经济体(美国和欧盟)和出口拉动型经济体(新兴市场国家)而呈现不同特点;中国经济依靠出口拉动的经济增长方式并不具有可持续性;在汇率的外生解释中发现,汇率风险的放大会减少出口增速,汇率调整速度的加快,也会严重影响出口增速.因此,加速中国经济增长方式转变步伐,推动人民币汇率市场化势在必行.
This paper aims to test the existence of the long-run equilibrium,and to study the role played by exogenous policy factors,such as the exchange rate and the exchange rate risk,in the exports.The empirical research showed that：Except for the city economic entities-Chinese Hong Kong and Singapore,there had the above relationship which showed the different character between the domestically-oriented economy（American and Euro） and the export-oriented economy（emerging country）.These did not have a sustainable development of economic if we didn＇t change the export-oriented economic growth mode.In the exogenous explanation of the RMB exchange rate,it was found that to enlarge the risk of exchange rate will decrease the growth of export.So,it＇s the time to speed the changing of the economic growth mode and to release the market-oriented RMB exchange rate.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第6期69-81,共13页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(71003100)
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(11XNK027
10XNF020)
北京市教委科技创新平台项目(PXM2015_014213_000063)
关键词
出口
长期均衡
汇率
汇率风险
经济增长方式
export
long-term equilibrium
exchange rate
risk of exchange rate
economic growth mode
