摘要
在介绍加权马尔可夫链预测方法的基础上,以昆明市东川区1956年至2000年的年降雨量为实例,分别基于样本均值-均方差分组法和有序聚类分组法(最优分割法)进行加权马尔可夫链滚动预测的实证分析.结果表明有序聚类分组法比均值-均方差分组法更为合理.
Based on the annual precipitation data from 1956 to 2000 Dong-Chuan District,the weighted Markov chain is applied to prediction and analysis of states of the rainfall,in which the sample mean-standard deviation classified method and optimum partition method are taken as the classification standard respectively.It is concluded that the optimum partition method is more reasonable than the mean-standard deviation classified method.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第6期172-179,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
加权马尔可夫链
预测
最优分割法
降雨量
weighted Markov chain
prediction
optimal partition method
rainfall
