摘要
通过对乙肝传播机理的研究,在考虑接种免疫等因素后,建立了适合于乙肝病毒感染的动力学模型.首先对其平衡点进行稳定性分析,其次简化模型,通过简化的模型进行模拟.除此之外,利用Kalman fllter方法对模型及其观测值进行数据同化,调整模型轨道,使其达到良好的模拟效果,从而更好的进行预测.
A kind of dynamical model for hepatitis B virus infection was established after considering the hepatitis B virus propagation mechanism and immune factors. Firstly, the sta- bility of the equilibrium points was analyzed; Secondly, by simplifying the model, a forecasting model based on Chinese HBV data was established. In addition, we use Kalman filter method to conduct data assimilation for the model and the observations to adjust the trajectory of the model, so as to achieve a good simulation effect and have a better forecasting.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第6期205-211,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
乙肝病毒
平衡点
稳定性分析
数据同化
预测
hepatitis B virus
equilibrium
stability analysis
data assimilation
forecasting
