鄱阳湖流域1951-2010年极值降水指数变化趋势分析

Trend of the Extreme Precipitation Indices in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1951 to 2010

采用＂STARDEX＂项目的极值降水指数,借助MK趋势和突变检验、ARCGIS等方法,揭示1951-2010年鄱阳湖流域极值降水指数的变化趋势特征,以期为流域的洪涝灾害风险管理提供数据支持。结果表明：1各站的简单降水强度基本为上升趋势,主要贡献来自冬季和秋季;pn10mm指数在夏季多数站点上升,在春季则全部为下降趋势,造成多数站点年序列呈微弱下降趋势;各站pfl90指数基本为上升趋势;多数站点pnl90指数也为上升趋势,上升趋势主要来自夏季的贡献。2多数站点年最大1d、3d、5d、10d降水量的变化趋势均不显著;最大1d降水量多数站点上升,最大10d降水量则多数站点下降;流域内各站pq60~pq95指数存在比较一致的上升趋势,pf60~pf95指数则反之。

The STARDEX extreme precipitation indices are adopted,the Mann-Kendall trend and abrupt change test and ARCGIS technology are used to investigate the trend characteristics of the extreme precipitation indices in the Poyang Lake basin from 1951to2010,and the results will support the flood disaster risk management in the study area.The results are as follows.First,the pint indices are on the increase for most of the stations,and this upward trend is mainly due to the winter and summer increase in pint;the pn10 mm indices in summer are on the increase for most of the stations,while the indices are on the decrease for all the stations in spring,leading to the weak downward trend for the annual series;the pfl90 indices show an upward trend for the majority of the stations;the pnl90 indices also show an upward trend for many stations,and the upward trend can be attributed to the summer increase.Secondly,the trend for all the px1 d,px3d,px5 dand px10dindices are not significant for most of the stations;the px1 dindices are increasing for many of the stations,while the px10 dindices are decreasing for the majority of the stations;the pq60~pq95indices show a common upward trend in the basin,while the pf60~pf95indices are the opposite.