洞庭湖流域降水多尺度特征与趋势预测及空间分布规律

Multi-scale Periodic Features and Trend Prediction and Their Spatial Distribution Pattern of Precipitation in Dongting Lake Basin

对降水的多尺度周期规律进行研究,可以深层次分析降水特征及演变趋势,能够为水资源系统决策提供依据。以洞庭湖流域为研究对象,以流域11个代表性雨量站1958-2009年降水资料为基础,采用小波分析法,研究了各站年降水多尺度周期特征以及演变趋势,进而分析了其空间分布规律。结果表明:小波分析法在水文、气象等非稳定信号序列的多尺度特征分析与趋势预测中独具优势;洞庭湖流域不同地区年降水多尺度周期特征具有较明显的空间分布规律,而不同地区年降水的演变趋势大致相同,整体将处于降水偏少状态。

The research on multi-scale periodic laws of precipitation can analyze its features and trends and provide a basis for the decision of water resources system.Dongting Lake basin is taken as an example based on the precipitation data（1958~2009）of 11 representative rainfall stations,the multi-scale periodic features and trends of the annual precipitation of each station were analyzed by wavelet analytic method,whose spatial distribution pattern was analyzed later.The results show that：the wavelet analysis method has unique advantages in multi-scale feature analysis and trend prediction in hydrological,meteorological and other non-stationary signal sequences.The multi-scale periodic features of annual precipitation are different in different regions in the Dongting Lake basin and there is a distinct spatial distribution pattern,and the trends of annual precipitation in different regions are substantially the same,on the whole the basin will be in a rainless state.