信贷约束对家庭消费的影响——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证分析

The Influence of Credit Constraints on Household Consumption—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from China Household Finance Survey

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)微观数据,主要运用Heckman两步法研究了信贷约束对家庭消费行为的影响。为了克服信贷约束的内生性对估计结果产生的影响,引入工具变量进行两阶段估计。实证分析结果一致表明,信贷约束阻碍了家庭消费,使家庭的实际消费低于理论上的最优消费。家庭总资产、总收入、家庭规模、学历、房产数量对家庭消费有显著的正向影响,风险厌恶对家庭消费有显著的负向影响。另外,那些总资产规模小、老年抚养比高、户主收入低、受教育程度低、身体状况一般的家庭受到信贷约束的概率显著提高。因此,改善金融环境和提高家庭可支配收入是促进家庭消费的重要措施。

By using the data from China Household Financial Survey（ CHFS） and Heckman two- step estimation,this paper investigates the influence of credit constraints on household consumption in China. In order to overcome the influence of the endogenous character of credit constraints on the estimation results,instrument variables are used to make a two- stage estimation.Empirical results show that credit constraints hamper household consumption,which makes the actual consumption of households below the theoretical optimal consumption. Total assets,gross income,family size,education and the number of real estate have a significant positive impact on consumption,while risk aversion has a significant negative impact on household consumption. In addition,families with the characters of small scale assets,high elderly dependency ratio,low income,low level of education and physical condition are more likely to be influenced by credit constraints. Therefore,improving the financial environment and increasing household disposable income are important measures to promote household consumption.