全球贸易增速放缓的十大原因

The top ten reasons of the slowdown of global trade growth

与金融危机前贸易增速高于GDP增速的现象进行比较,货物贸易增速和GDP增速的关系是否已经发生变化?全球贸易增速放缓的原因是什么?本文从较长历史视野的角度,并综合考虑其他因素来回答这些问题。

Comparing with the financial crisis breaking out, a former trade growth rate is higher than GDP growth phenomenon, has the goods trade growth and the relationship between the GDP growth been changed? What is the cause of the global trade growth slowing? This article answers these questions from the perspective of the long historical view and the comprehensive consideration of other factors.The global value chain now has grown to the enough deep extent and it's hard to deepen, so the impetus of trade growth is no longer in existence, resulting in the trade downturn now. It has great potential to continue to be deepened, but need the deep factors to push. The slowdown of the global trade growth appeared in 2012 and 2013, which is unlikely to continue. The growth of the world trade will be faster than that of the economy after 2015.