中国粮食进口再加速 未来中国粮食进口仍保持着强劲的增长势头

China's grain imports accelerating again

2014年中国粮食海运进口量继续快速增长,同比增速由2013年的8.2%扩大至16.5%,全年进口量总计达到8,780万吨。尽管去年某些粮食品种进口量较为疲软,同时国内粮食产量实现“十一连增”,但在总体上中国粮食进口仍保持着强劲的增长势头。

Chinese seaborne grain imports continued to grow rapidly in 2014, registering a 16.5% year-on-year increase to total 87.8mt in the full year, following an 8.2% expansion in full year 2013. Overall imports rose at a robust pace during the year despite weaker import volumes of some types of grain, as well as an increase in total domestic grain output for the eleventh consecutive year. Underpinning the rise in grain imports has been increasing demand for livestock feed, with consumption of coarse grains rising by 11% in the past two crop years. Policies on domestic minimum grain purchase prices and temporary purchase and storage of some grains have also contributed to a wider price differential between domestic and foreign grain prices. Meanwhile, price dynamics have also affected domestic output of barley and sorghum, as some farmers have switched to maize and wheat production in an effort to raise income. So, a combination of factors contributed to robust growth in Chinese imports last year. Although the recent removal of restrictions on certain strains of GM maize from the US could lead to further shifts in the mix of grain imported, the outlook for overall volumes remains positive. Feed demand is continuing to grow strongly, and as such it seems likely that import growth will continue to supplement domestic grain supply in China.