欧元区与美国量化宽松政策特征、效果及影响比较分析

Comparative Analysis on the QE Policies in the Euro Zone and the U.S.

量化宽松政策(QE)是2008年以来全球主要央行应对经济金融困境的创新政策手段。就在美联储结束QE计划之后,欧央行于2015年1月公布了其QE计划,其实施及效果是目前全球金融市场关注的焦点。然而,关于QE实施及成功的条件目前既无理论依据也无历史经验可资借鉴,本文采用迄今最成功的范例——美联储QE实践作为参照物,探讨QE实施及成功的一般条件和局限,比较和分析欧央行QE与美联储QE的特征、异同,以此为基础评估和预测欧央行QE的效果,并探讨其对美国、中国经济及金融市场的影响。

Quantitative easing （QE） has been the creative policy tool of the major central banks for dealing with economic and financial risks since 2008. Right after the Fed finished its QE, the European Central Bank （ECB） just published its QE plan in January 2015. The implementation and effects of the ECB plan will be the focus of the markets all over the world. However, so far neither theory nor historical experiences can be used as a benchmark for evaluating the feasibility of the plan. The article ex- plores the general conditions for the implementation and success of the plan based on the Fed＇s QE practice, compares ECB＇s QE with the Fed＇s QE, forecasts the effects of ECB＇s QE, and analyzes its impact on US and China as well.