区域货币一体化、资本流动与服务业增长

Regional Monetary Integration,Capital Movement and Service Industry Growth

自贸区框架下人民币国际化对服务业开放的影响是近来理论研究的热点问题,本文通过将隐性贸易成本引入静态货币一体化模型,建立起货币同盟、服务业与服务贸易三者之间的联系,进而在服务业均衡增长路径上考察区域货币一体化对服务业和服务贸易相关性的影响。研究发现:(1)区域货币一体化会通过降低隐性贸易成本促进服务贸易发展;(2)区域货币一体化与服务业增长正相关,与服务贸易和产业的协调性负相关;(3)货币一体化效应对服务业发展水平影响较低,对市场开放度较弱的国家影响更大。实证部分采用跨国行业面板数据对三者关系进行了研究,结果支持上述结论。文章最后提出我国服务业产业结构升级与贸易结构优化协调推进的政策建议。

By introducing invisible trade cost into static Monetary Integration Model,this paper set up the connection of common currency,service industry and service trade. Furthermore,we also observe the dynamic effect of monetary integration on service industry and service trade on the balanced growth path of service industry. The study discovered：（ 1） Common currency will promote service trade through bringing down the invisible trade cost;（ 2） on the balanced growth path of service industry,monetary integration is positively correlated with service growth,negatively correlated with the connection of service industry and service trade;（ 3） these two effects are particularly stronger for less developed countries with service industry and less open countries. Based on data from service industries,we empirically study the relations of the three,and the result support the above conclusion. Finally the suggestions to coordinate the upgrading of service industry and service trade are proposed accordingly.