中国工业行业产能利用率测度研究——基于面板协整的方法

Measuring Capacity Utilization in China's Industries:A Panel Cointegration Method

本文采用面板协整的方法测度了1980~2013年中国36个二位数工业行业的产能利用率。测度结果表明：其一,我国工业整体产能利用率与经济周期具有一致性;2008年经济危机以来,工业整体产能利用率下滑21%,政府治理尚未见成效。其二,我国的工业产能利用率与投资率长期表现出＂同升同降＂的协同性;2008年之后,政府的大规模刺激政策导致二者出现背离。其三,当前我国工业行业之间的产能利用率差异明显,产能过剩并不是全面性的,而是结构性的。本文研究有助于区分我国当前产能过剩中的周期性因素和结构性因素,对理解市场和政府在治理产能过剩中的作用具有一定启示。

This paper aims to measure capacity utilization of china＇s 36 Two-digit industrial sectors from 1980 ~ 2013 with a panel cointegration method,which is put forward by Shaikh and Moudud（2004）. The result shows：（1） Capacity utilization of china＇s industry has experienced three cycles with the fluctuation of total economy;（2） Capacity utilization and investment rates synced in most of the period before 2008,but they are moving in opposite directions after 2008.（3） The economic crisis in 2008 led to a significant decline of capacity utilization in almost all industrial sectors,Government＇s efforts in control overcapacity have made Little effect,the rate of capacity utilization is still going down.（4） Overcapacity is a structural phenomenon rather than a comprehensive one,Most light industries are running in low capacity utilization,however,the majority of heavy manufacturing sectors are still running at a high level. The research is helpful to distinguish the cyclical characteristics and structural characteristics in China＇s current excess capacity.