汇率问题本质、汇率制度选择与人民币汇率博弈

Nature of Exchange Rate Issue,Friedman- Mundell Debate and Game on RMB Exchange Rate

固定汇率固定的只是名义汇率,实际汇率会通过工资和物价变动间接得到调整;浮动汇率无非是通过调整名义汇率直接调整实际汇率。人为能够控制的是名义汇率,控制不了的是实际汇率,实际汇率总是要调整。汇率问题本质乃是选择调整名义汇率来调整实际汇率的调整成本更低,还是选择调整工资和物价来调整实际汇率的调整成本更低的问题。文章认为,既不是弗里德曼主张的浮动汇率对,也不是蒙代尔主张的固定汇率对,不同国家应该选择不同的汇率制度。一般来说,发展中国家应该选择固定汇率,发达国家则可选择浮动汇率。中国的劳动力市场自由度高,况且汇率间接调整的方向是工资和物价上升,这没有障碍,因此长期中人民币汇率不存在严重低估的问题。这可以解释为什么2013年人们还在谈论人民币汇率低估了,但是转眼到了2014年,又说人民币汇率高估了。人民币汇率不只是决定于经济情况,同时也决定于政治博弈。由于谈判地位不对称,近年来人民币缓慢升值就是必然。

The fixed exchange rate is only a nominal exchange rate. The real exchange rate adjusts itself indi- rectly through price and wage changes. The floating exchange rate simply directly adjusts the real exchange rate through changing the nominal exchange rate. What can be controlled manually is only the nominal exchange rate, but not the real one, for the real exchange is always under adjustment. The nature of the exchange rate is- sue is to choose the way of adjustment which costs less, to adjust the real exchange rate through changing the nominal exchange rate or prices and wages. Neither the floating exchange rate advocated by Friedman, nor the fixed exchange rate advocated by Mundell is absolutely correct. Different countries should have different ex- change rate systems. Generally speaking, developing countries should choose the fixed exchange rate system while the developed countries should choose the floating exchange rate system. The game between the United States and China on the RMB is more a political issue than an economic one. Due to the asymmetric positions in negotiation, it is inevitable for the RMB to strengthen slowly in the long ran.