气候变化对重庆油菜生产的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Oilseed Rape Production in Chongqing

为了研究重庆特殊的生态气候条件与油菜生产发展的关系,基于重庆1983—2013年气象资料和油菜生产状况,分析重庆近30年来气候变化特征及其对油菜生产的影响。结果表明:分析期内重庆年平均气温变化呈现显著的曲线上升趋势,日照时数呈现显著减少趋势(在0.05水平上通过显著性检验);重庆近30年降雨量突变发生比较频繁,线性变化趋势不明显,但相邻年份间降水量差异较大,1998年降水量为1363.5 mm是分析期内降水量最多的一年,以此为突变点,此后呈下降趋势。菌核病发病指数与3月和4月平均气温相关系数为-0.682*达显著水平,菌核病发病指数与降雨量和日照时数相关性不显著;重庆油菜面积与温度呈显著负相关(P=-0.568*),单产与温度相关性不显著。日照时数与油菜单产呈显著负相关(P=-0.544*),与油菜面积相关性不显著。降雨量的线性变化趋势不明显,而且相邻年份间降水量差异较大,与油菜面积和单产相关性均不显著。

In order to study the relationship between Chongqing special eco- climatic conditions and thedevelopment of rapeseed production based on meteorological data and rapeseed production situation in 2005-2013 in Chongqing, the authors analyzed the climate change in recent 30 years in Chongqing and its impact onrapeseed production. The results showed that： in the analysis period, Chongqing＇s average annual temperaturechange showed an ascending trend, sunshine hours showed significant decreasing trend（through the significanttest at 0.05 level）. Rainfall mutations occurred frequently, and the linear trend was not obvious; but rainfallbetween adjacent years showed significant differences, rainfall in 1998 reached 1363.5 mm which was the mostin the analysis period and acted as a mutation point, then decreased. The correlation between index ofsclerotinia rot and average temperature of March and April was- 0.682＊, reached significant level, while thecorrelation between index of sclerotinia rot and rainfall and sunshine hours was not obvious. Temperature had asignificant negative correlation with oilseed rape area in Chongqing（P=-0.568＊）, but no significant correlationwith yield. Sunshine hours had negative correlation（P=- 0.544＊） with oilseed rape yield, but no significantcorrelation with oilseed rape area. Linear trend of rainfall was not obvious, and the precipitation differencebetween adjacent years was great and its correlation with oilseed rape area and yield were not significant.