基于流强度的中国城市对外服务能力时空演变特征

Spatio-temporal Evolution Patterns of External Service Capabilities of Chinese Central Cities Based on Urban Flow Intensity

综合运用城市流强度模型、改良Theil系数和K-means时空聚类法对2004～2010年中国地级以上286个城市对外服务能力的时空演变特征进行探讨，得到以下结论：①城市流强度值的绝对量均有明显上升，但存在显著的区域非均衡现象，并与城市经济实力有较高的相关性。②省内差异对城市对外服务能力的差异贡献率在58％～72％，是其空间尺度差异的主要来源。③时空演变表现出明显的阶段性和等级性规律，且空间等级性特征随阶段演进更趋明显。④对外服务能力的强弱和集聚强化趋势与城市流强度基数值大小和增速快慢有着紧密关系，一定程度上体现了基础乘数效应和循环累积效应配置下的非均衡特征。

The present research on urban external service capability has focused less attention to its spatio-tem- poral evolution patterns. Aiming to solve this problem, this article comprehensively uses urban flow intensity model, the modified Theil index and K-means cluster as tools to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of external service capabilities of 286 central cities in Chinese urban system from 2004-2010. The conclusions can be drawn as follows： 1） urban flow intensity value has obvious rise during the study period, but the spatial differential features tend to remarkable, which has a high correlation with cities economy. 2） The modified Theil index shows that external service capabilities of central cities the differentiation in space are mainly from province inside, which gives a contribution rate from 58% to 72% to the national differentiation. 3） According to K-means cluster method, the spatio-temporal patterns of external service capabilities of Chinese central cit- ies has the obvious evolution discipline of stage in time and hierarchy in space, and the hierarchy become more significant along with stage. 4） External service capabilities of Chinese central cities in the spatio-temporal pat- terns evolution tend to be more remarkable, and this trend has a close relationship with the urban flow intensity values and its growth rate. The relationship between external service capabilities of cities and the urban flow in- tensity values and its growth rate to a certain extent reflects the basic multiplier effect and the effect of cyclical accumulation can draw the regional unbalanced characteristics.