长春市“两抢两盗”犯罪的空间分析

Spatial Analysis on Robbery, Forcible Seizure, Vehicle Theft and Burglary in Changchun

基于警区层面的数据,以长春市为例,选取城市中典型的"两抢两盗"(抢劫、抢夺、机动车盗窃和入室盗窃)为研究对象,分析了长春市2008年不同犯罪的空间分布特征,并通过建立多元回归模型,探究几类犯罪空间分异的影响因子。研究发现,各类犯罪均表现出差异的空间分布规律和特征。回归分析的结果表明,抢劫、抢夺和机动车盗窃在不同程度上存在与之显著关联的影响因子,而入室盗窃则未能建立回归模型。最后基于相关结论,提出了犯罪地理研究对城市管理几点启示。

Criminal geography which is one of the important branches in terms of crime studies is highly valued for its practicality. The studies concerning criminal geography in China are still at the beginning stage. More practical studies are needed so as to provide suggestions for the policing work. Different types of crimes usual- ly have various distribution patterns as well as influential factors, which in turn requires deeper understanding in order to make wiser measures to counter crimes. Based on the crime data collected at the police-precincts level in Changchun, we choose the robbery, forcible seizure, vehicle theft and burglary as studies subjects and examine their distribution patterns in 2008 using the method of location quotient. Further, the influential fac- tors of each crime are explored using the regression analysis and the mechanisms are also discussed. The re- sults show that different crimes display various patterns and characteristics in terms of the spatial distribution. Generally, the robbery and forcible seizures tend to concentrate in the central part of the city and become less in the peripheral suburbs, while vehicle theft and burglary rates present an opposite pattern that the outside po- lice-precincts are prone to higher crime risks. The regression analyses indicate that robbery, forcible seizures, vehicle theft are associated with some influential factors significantly in varying degrees. The robbery rates of Changchun are proved to be positively associated with the density of main roads and the proportion of commer- cial land use, and negatively related to the variables of the existence of vast industrial area and the number of high-rise buildings. The regression results also indicate that the forcible seizures rates are positively correlated to the variables of population density, the service activities as well as the existence of main commercial area. Meanwhile, the vehicle theft rates show a positively relationship with the existence of vast industrial area, while it exhibits negative relationship with the variables of the length of main roads and the distance between the centroid of the Jiedao and the nearest main roads. All the significant relationships between the different crime rates and respective influential factors can be explained according to the relevant theories and the specif- ic socioeconomic characteristics of Changchun. The regression models indicate that the crime rates are a func- tion of the characteristics of people in an area as well as the environment and characteristics of the area where people reside or work. However, We fail to build up a regression model with respect to burglary rates, which may be due to the fact that the variables we selected to conduct the regression analysis for burglary rates are too general and not able to explain the variance of burglary rates in Changchun. Finally, according to the con- clusions drawn in the study, some implications for city management are proposed in the last part of this study.