基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝脆弱性分析

Vulnerability Analysis of Rainstorm Waterlogging on Buildings in Central Urban Area of Shanghai Based on Scenario Simulation

暴雨内涝灾害是上海市最主要的自然灾害类型之一。在全球气候变化与海平面上升背景下,随着城市人口、财富的不断积聚,沿海城市的脆弱性增强,面临的暴雨内涝灾害风险形势更加严峻。基于情景分析视角,结合前人研究成果,分析、评价上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性。结果显示:仓库与旧式住宅是暴雨内涝灾害中脆弱性程度最大的建筑类型。整体上,杨浦、普陀、徐汇区建筑脆弱性程度最大,长宁、虹口、闸北建筑脆弱性程度处于中等水平,卢湾、静安与黄浦区建筑脆弱性程度相对较低。

Rainstorm waterlogging disaster, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, has bad- ly affected residents＇ lives and operation of urban system. As the accumulation of population and wealth, in the background of global climate change and sea level rises, the vulnerability of coastal city show an increas- ing trend which may lead a very serious situation of rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk. From the point view of scenario analysis, the vulnerability of the indoor property and structure of the buildings to rainstorm water- logging disasters in central urban area of Shanghai was analyzed and evaluated combined with the previous studies. The main conclusions were as follows： 1） The vulnerability of different building types presents signifi- cant difference. The warehousing and the old-style residence are the most vulnerable building types when expo- sure to waterlogging disasters. 2） The loss rate, number, and types of damaged buildings increase as the precipi- tation intensity increases. 3） The structure of buildings was more vulnerable than the properties in the build- ings, but the loss rate of building structure was lower than that of the properties in the building in the same con- dition. 4） The number of building with damaged structure was higher than that of building with damages prop- erty under the same scenario. 5） The spatial difference of the vulnerability of buildings is obvious. Over all, the rainstorm waterlogging disaster has the most serious effects on the buildings in Yangpu, Putuo and Xuhui Dis- trict; the buildings in Changning, Hongkou and Zhabei District have medium vulnerability rank; the buildings in Luwan, Jing＇ an and Huangpu District have low vulnerability rank.