新兴市场资本流动

Capital flows to emerging markets

文章指出，新兴市场资本流入呈现较大波动性将成未来态势，预计其2014年和2015年流人量会较2013年下降。就新兴市场资本流入的影响因素，文章分析了全球经济增长减弱的负面影响，认为新兴资本市场吸引力前景不明且出现地区分化，发达经济体货币政策预期变化和地缘政治紧张两大下行风险上升。文章探讨了G3货币政策预期变化对新兴市场资本流动的影响，并预测了亚洲、欧洲、拉美、非洲和中东等各新兴市场地区资本流动状况。

Capital flows to emerging economies have been very choppy and are estimated to maintain this pattern. The capital inflows in 2014 and 2015 are forecasted to be lower than that of 2013. As for the influential factors, a slowdown of global economic growth is unfavorable, the EMEs＇ attractiveness to global capital is ambiguous and region-diversified, and the risks from divergence in G3 monetary policy-making and potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions are rising. The article discusses the effects of divergence in G3 monetary policy-making on capital flows towards EMEs, and estimates the profile of capital flows in global emerging markets.