摘要
为分析驱动因子对昆明市耕地变化的影响,根据2000—2010年耕地数量逐年递减,建设用地逐年增加的情况,应用相关分析、回归分析和通径分析的研究模型,探究影响昆明市耕地变化的驱动因子。结果表明:影响昆明市耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子为经济因子、人口因子和技术因子。经济因子(昆明市GDP、工业生产总值、全社会固定资产投资)在耕地减少中处于主导地位;人口因子(总人口数)间接产生一定的作用;技术因子(农机总动力)影响趋势逐渐增强。经济的增长和人口的增加,使人均耕地面积递减的速度呈加快趋势。耕地的减少和人口的增长加剧了人地矛盾,在一定程度上对生态和环境造成重大的影响。
In order to analyze the driving factors of the cultivated land change in Kunming, correlationanalysis, regression analysis and path analysis were used to explore the factors. The study was based on thecondition that area of cultivated land was diminishing and area of construction land was increasing in Kunmingfrom 2000 to 2010. The results showed that the main driving factors were economic, population and technicalfactors. Economic factors（Kunming GDP, the total value of industrial production, fixed asset investment） werethe most important. Population factor（total population） was the indirect effective factor. Technical factor（thetotal power of agricultural machinery） was more and more important. Economic and population growth led tothe reduction of cultivated area per capita. Reduction in arable land and increase of population exacerbated thecontradiction between people and land, and had a significant impact on ecology and environment.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第7期251-255,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金"城镇上山进程中基于空间绩效的云南高原湖滨城市用地结构优化研究:以昆明市为例"(41361042)
教育部人文社科研究青年基金"基于GIS的云南高原滇中城市群互斥-共生效应评价及其优化策略研究"(12YJCZH159)
关键词
耕地变化
驱动因子
通径分析
昆明市
cultivated land change
driving factor
path analysis
Kunming
