从专利实施许可数据的突变看中国创新能力的状态演进

The Evolution of Chinese Innovation Ability: A Catastrophe Theory Perspective from the Licensed Patent Data

采用突变级数法,从专利实施许可的角度构建了国家创新能力评价体系,并以2002—2012年的专利实施许可数据对中国创新能力进行了综合评价和状态演进分析。结果表明,近十年中国创新能力经历了2007年和2009年两次质的飞跃,这两次飞跃将创新能力的发展演变过程划分成三个阶段,即2002—2006年的创新能力低水平徘徊阶段,2007—2008年的创新能力升势确立阶段,以及2009—2012年的创新能力跨越阶段。研究表明,只要坚持走创新驱动发展战略,中国的整体创新能力还将进一步向上跃迁,步入创新强国之列指日可待。

A national innovation ability evaluation system was constructed by adopting mutation progression method from the perspective of patent licensing, and the innovation ability of China and its state evolution was comprehensively evaluated and analyzed through the patent licensing data of the country from 2002 to 2012. The results shows that, in the recent decade, the innovation ability of China ex- perienced two qualitative leaps respectively in 2007 and 2009, which divided the evolution process of the Chinese innovation ability into three stages, namely, the low ability level stage in 2002--2006, the ability uptrend stage in 2007--2008, and the ability leapfrog stage in 2009--2012. It implied that China＇s overall innovation capability might undergo a jump time and again as long as we persist in the innovation-driven development strategy, and the country would step into the column of the powerful innovative nations.