基于史密斯模型与情景分析法的“先看病后付费”政策研究

Study of the present situation about the “treatment before payment” policy based on Model of T. B. Smith and Scenarios analysis

目的:对"先看病后付费"政策现状及发展前景进行分析。方法:运用史密斯模型,分析政策效果,并运用情景分析法识别影响政策发展的关键事件。结果:政策目标群体对政策满意度较高,但政策执行中也出现了一些问题,共识别了六个影响政策发展的关键事件。结论:政策未来的发展中,以乐观情景发生的可能性最大。相关部门应对政策进行优化,致力于乐观情景的出现。

Objective To study the present situation of the ＂treatment before payment＂ policy and to analysis the prospects of the policy. Methods Model of T. B. Smith was used to analysis the policy comprehensively in aspects of the effect and the inade- quate from the four factors, and scenarios analysis was used to identify the key events. Results Although satisfaction of target groups for the policy is highly since the implementation of the ＂treatment before payment＂ policy, some problems also exist. The method of scenarios analysis was used to identify 6 key events. Conclusions In the future of the ＂treatment before payment＂ policy, optimistic scenario will most probably take place in the long run. Relevant departments should take active measures to adjust and optimize the policy for the scenario of optimism.