基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型对细菌性痢疾的预测应用

Application of seasonal trend model based moving average method for prediction of bacillary dysentery

目的探讨移动平均法的季节趋势模型在菌痢发病预测的应用,为采取防控措施提供科学依据。方法基于宜昌市2010-2013年逐月菌痢发病率建立移动平均法的季节趋势模型,并将拟合值与实际值进行拟合评价。结果2010-2013年菌痢的实际值与拟合值平均相对误差为1.72%,模型拟合较好。应用季节趋势模型可对2014年菌痢的发病率进行预测。结论基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型,能较好的模拟菌痢发病在时间序列的变化趋势,为制定科学的防控措施和策略提供依据。

Objective To study the application of seasonal trend model based on moving average method in forecasting the inci- dence of bacillary dysentery disease, and to provide scientific evidence for adopting prevention and control measures. Methods We built seasonal trend model with moving average method based on each month incidence of bacillary dysentery in Yichang from 2010 to 2013, and then judged the fitting of predicted value and actual value. Results The average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value was 1.72 % for bacillary dysentery incidence from 2010 to 2013, the model fitted was better. Application of seasonal trend model could forecast the incidence of bacillary dysentery in 2014. Conclusion Seasonal trend model based on moving average method can better simulate the changing tendency of bacillary dysentery incidence in the time se- ries so as to supply evidence for developing prevention and control measures and strategies of the disease.