基于全局因子分析和聚类分析法的欠发达地区新型城镇化研究——以河北省11个地级市为例

New Type of Urbanization of the Less Developed Areas by Global Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis— — The 11 Cities in Hebei Province as an Example

城镇化是历史发展的趋势,我国进入城镇化加速发展阶段以来大力提倡"以人为核心"的新型城镇化。但是,我国的区域性差异使各地城镇化发展不尽相同,欠发达地区的城镇化发展相对迟缓。主要从新型城镇化涵义出发,对欠发达地区的新型城镇化测评指标体系和该区域在时序动态及空间分布上新型城镇化的演变进行探讨,并提出建议。选择河北省11个地级市作为实证分析对象,先构建新型城镇化测评指标体系,然后利用2007-2012年相关数据运用全局因子分析法分析,得出各地级市新型城镇化水平的综合得分及变化趋势,其次运用聚类分析法分析新型城镇化空间的动态,最后提出欠发达地区面临机遇时,需要找出一条符合自身的新型城镇化道路。欠发达地区新型城镇化应多鼓励县域农民向大中城市转移,以农业发展为基础,丰富农副产品满足渐长的城市人口,着重发展第三产业成为经济增长的新内生力。

Urbanization is the trend of historical development. Since entering the stage of accelerated development of urbanization, China has strongly advocated ＂human-centered＂ new type of urbanization. But, the regional dif- ference of urbanization in China has made each area＇s development different. This article mainly discusses evaluation index system of new urbanization of the less developed areas and the evolution of the new type of urbanization on the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution. And Suggestions are put forward. The authors choose 11 cities in Hebei province as object of empirical analysis, build a evaluation index system of new urbanization, then use the related data from 2007 to 2012 by using global factor analysis to analysis and obtain the comprehensive score and change tre- nd of each prefecture new urbanization level. Then this paper uses cluster analysis method to analyze the dynamic space of the new urbanization, finally the authors advocate that the less developed areas need to find a suitable path of new urbanization when facing the opportunities.