财政政策冲击对社会福利及宏观经济的动态影响——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

The Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Impulse to Social Welfare and Macroeconomics:Analysis Based on DSGE Model

笔者通过构建含有多冲击的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型比较了不同财政政策环境下的社会福利大小,并以我国1997年至2013年的季度数据为样本进行模型检验及数值模拟分析,深入研究了技术冲击、财政支出冲击及税收冲击对社会福利和产出、消费、投资、就业、通胀等经济变量的动态影响。分析表明,增加财政支出和减少税收等扩张性财政政策措施均增加了社会福利,采用财政支出工具进行经济调控能得到最大的福利效应,消费税的福利效应次之,资本税的平均福利效应最小。脉冲响应分析进一步支持了这一结论,同时表明,财政支出冲击具有较强的持续性,而劳动税冲击具有高度波动性。财政支出冲击及税收冲击对于社会福利和投资的影响比较剧烈,而对消费、产出、就业、通胀等经济变量的影响较小,这对我国在保持货币政策持续性和稳健性的情况下,灵活地调整财政政策具有重要意义。

This article compared the size of the social welfare under different fiscal policy environment by building new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilib numerical simulation analysis based on quarterly data from rium （DSGE） 1997 to 2013. model with many impulses, and did Then we further studied the impact of technology impulse, fiscal expenditure impulse and tax impulse on social welfare and output, consumption, investment, employment, inflation and other economic variables. The results showed that social welfare in- creased by some expansionary fiscal policy measures, such as increasing fiscal spending and tax cuts. Fiscal expenditure can get the biggest welfare effect when the government implementing expansionary fiscal policy, consumption tax is smaller, the welfare effect of the capital tax is smallest. Impulse response analysis further supported this conclusion, and shows that the impact of fiscal expenditure has strong sustainability, the impact of labor tax with high volatility. The impact of fiscal spending and tax impulse on social welfare and investment are severe, while consumption, output, employment, inflation and other economic variables would be less af- fected by these two impulses. This is of robustness of the monetary policy of our great significance to adjust fiscal policy in keeping the continuity and country.