中国金融开放进程中货币替代的影响因素研究

An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Currency Substitution in China

随着全球经济一体化程度加深,各国逐步放松资本管制,货币替代已成为开放经济中普遍存在的问题,会对一国经济产生多方面的影响。近年来,我国金融体制改革逐渐加快,这使得未来几年我国极有可能会面临货币替代的变化,从而影响整个金融体系的稳定。研究分析了我国金融改革进程中货币替代程度的变化,并运用向量自回归模型实证检验了1994Q1—2013Q3近20年间影响我国货币替代的主要因素。研究结果表明,名义有效汇率对我国货币替代程度的影响最为显著,呈正相关关系。通过多元分段回归的方法进一步研究发现,以汇率制度改革为例的金融开放将使得各因素对货币替代的影响程度更大。为保障我国货币政策的独立性,有序推进金融开放,应正确认识货币替代的防范在我国经济发展中的重要地位,及早将货币替代程度纳入经济监测指标。

As the extent of the global economic integration deepens, currency substitution has become a universal problem in the open economy. In recent years, the reform of China＇s financial system speeds up, which makes a higher possibility of China to face the change in currency substitution in the next few years, thus affecting the stability of the entire financial system. This study analyzes the degree of currency substitution during the financial reform in China. And we also build a VAR model to find out the main factors affecting the currency substitution of China from the first quarter of 1994 to the third quarter of 2013. The results show that impact of nominal effective exchange rate on China＇s currency substitution is the most significant, and they have a positively correlated relationship. Further study through multi-segmented regression method finds that the exchange rate regime reform as an exmple of financial liberalization will allow a greater degree of influence on the currency substitution by the various factors. To ensure the independence of China＇s monetary policy and make financial liberalization process in an orderly way, the degree of currency substitution should be incorpo- rated into economic monitoring indicators and ment. placed in an important position of China＇s economic develop