分税制改革对我国财政收支关系影响的实证研究——基于ARDL模型边限检验方法

An Empirical Study on Influence of Tax Sharing Reform on the Relationship between Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure——Based on Bounds Testing of ARDL Model

本文采用ARDL模型边限检验方法考察了我国1952～2010年财政收支历史数据,结果发现分税制改革对我国财政收支关系产生了重大影响。分税制前国家财政和地方财政均呈现"收支互相影响"双向因果关系;分税制后国家财政呈现"以收定支"单向因果关系,地方财政却呈现"以支定收"单向因果关系;中央财政无论是分税制前还是分税制后都始终呈现"收支相互独立"无因果关系。

This paper investigates China's historical data of fiscal revenue and expenditure from 1952 to 2010 by the bounds testing of ARDL model. The results reveal that the tax sharing reform has had a significant effect on the relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China. The national fiscal and local fiscal performances were both consistent with'fiscal synchronization hypotheses'before the tax sharing reform,but since then,the national fiscal performance meets'fiscal revenue-and-expenditure hypotheses',and the local fiscal performance meets'fiscal expenditure-and-revenue hypotheses'.The central fiscal performance meets'institutional separation hypothesis'from beginning to end.