1979—2012年库尔勒市气温变化对香梨产量的影响

Impact of Temperature Change on Fragrant Pear Yield in Korla City During 1979-2012

利用库尔勒市1979—2012年香梨产量数据以及同期库尔勒市气象站逐旬气温资料,分析了近34 a该市年平均气温、香梨休眠至果实成熟期平均气温以及香梨产量变化特征,并就香梨不同生长发育时段温度变化对香梨产量的影响进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)近34 a库尔勒市年平均气温、香梨休眠至果实成熟期平均气温分别以0.36℃/10 a和0.40℃/10 a的倾向率升高。香梨休眠至果实成熟期不同时段平均气温的变化具有明显的差异,11月上旬至12月上旬以及2月上旬至9月上旬平均气温总体呈明显的上升趋势,但12月中旬至1月下旬平均气温以0.09^-0.55℃/10 a倾向率下降,以1月下旬平均气温下降尤为显著。(2)受气候变化和温度条件年际间差异的影响,近34 a库尔勒市香梨产量年际间波动达-11 484~6 401 kg/hm2,并且从20世纪90年代后期以来香梨产量年际间不稳定性趋于增大。(3)越冬期,尤其是隆冬的1月中、下旬温度条件是对库尔勒香梨产量影响最明显的气候因子。近34 a库尔勒市12月中旬至1月下旬气温,尤其是1月中、下旬气温呈下降趋势是导致香梨产量不稳,部分年份明显减产的主要气候成因。

The data of ten days average temperature and yield of fragrant pear from Korla weather station during 1979-2012 were used, to analyze the variation characteristics of annual average temperature, the average temperature from dormant to maturation stage, and yield of fragrant Pear in Korla city in recent 34 years. At the same time,the impact of temperature variation in different growth stage on yield of fragrant Pear was discussed. The results showed that:(1)The annual average temperature and the average temperature from pear dormant to maturation stage respectively increased with tendency rate at 0.36 ℃ /10 a and 0.40 ℃ /10 a in recent 34 years, the average temperature variation in different growth stage from dormant to maturation stage have a significant difference, among them,the average temperature from early November to early December and in early February to early September showed obviously upward trend, but the average temperature in mid-December to late January with tendency rate at 0.09^-0.55 ℃/10 a decreased, particularly the average temperature in late January is significant decline.(2)Because of the difference of the temperature change and the inter annual temperature influence, the interannual change of fragrant pear yield range from-11 484 kg/hm2 to 6 401 kg/hm2. In fact, the instability in the interannual change of the fragrant pear yield was increase since the late 1990 s.(3)Mid and late January temperature is the most significant factor influencing on the yield of fragrant pear in Korla area. In recent 34 years, the temperature from mid December to late January, especially in mid and late January decreased,it causes the fragrant pear yield instability,and obvious reduction in partial years.