地缘政治经济框架下碳关税影响的多区域CGE模拟

A Multi-regional CGE Simulation of Impact of Carbon Tariffs under Geopolinomic Structure

碳关税是典型的地缘政治经济学问题,对全球各国具有重要的经济与环境影响。采用混合编程方式,开发了面向地缘政治经济分析的全球多区域CGE政策模拟器,并模拟了美国、欧盟对世界其他经济体征收碳关税的影响。模拟结果显示,征收碳关税对发展中国家经济形成了较大的负面冲击,造成其总产出及贸易条件等指标的下降,其中,中国经济受到的负面冲击最大,其矿产加工与冶金、塑料橡胶化工及矿产采掘等部门的产出下降严重,低水平发展中国家受到的负面冲击最小。同时也发现,欧盟从碳关税中的受益要大于美国,这成为其推行碳关税的重要驱动力。在应对碳关税的国际谈判中,中、高经济发展水平的发展中国家是中国的最佳合作伙伴,低水平发展中国家则不是。此外,美国从碳关税中的受益并不明显,是中国有可能争取的合作对象。

Carbon tariff is a typically geopolinomic issue and has an economicand environmental influence on the whole world which can not be ignored. By utilizinghybrid programming pattern, the authors have built a global multi-regionalComputable General Equilibrium modeling system, which could be used inthe analysis of global geopolinomic issues. Based on the CGE simulator developed,the impact of the carbon tariff policy has been analyzed, and the exogenousshock is set as carbon tariff imposed on the developing countries by theUnited States and European Union. The simulation result shows that most of thedeveloping countries are suffered quite a certain passive influence, with adecrease of output, terms of trade and other economic indexes. The economy ofChina will suffer the most serious loss among these developing countries, witha drastic drop in the output of mineral processing and metallurgy, plasticsand rubber industry, mineral extractionand, and so on. By contrast, the lossof the low-lever developing countries is not very significant. The simulationresult also shows that under such scenario setting, EU will benefit much morethan US, which may explain the enthusiasm of EU in carrying out the carbontariff policy. In the negotiation of countering the carbon tariff policy ofthe developed countries, the high-lever and mid-level developing countries canbe regarded as the appropriate partners of China for their common geopolinomicinterest, while the low-lever developing countries will probably not ally withChina to oppose the carbon tariff policy imposed by the developed countries.It is worth noting that US can possibly be courted by China, since US benefitlittle from the carbon tariff policy as a matter of fact.