近五十年来全球经济地理格局的演化特征与趋势

The Pattern and Trends of the Global Economic Geographical Structure in Recent Fifty Years

目前,以技术革命为引擎的全球化过程促使世界经济地理格局发生了多次阶段性转变,多个新兴经济体在产业链国际化的助推下迅速崛起,使全球格局逐步向多极化发展。本文以份额变动规律为主要线索,在历史数据回顾的基础上对近半个世纪以来的全球经济总量、分产业增加值的份额在区域、国家等多个空间尺度上进行动态比较分析,并对当前全球产业转移和经济地理格局的演化特征与趋势进行归纳和整理,初步认为:第一,全球经济地理格局在最近五十年间呈现从传统发达国家为单一中心的"核心-边缘"结构逐步向"多极"世界演变,单中心集聚程度明显降低,区域间呈现优势分散化、差异缩小化的特点;第二,全球制造业地理格局演化的基本趋势与以经济总量度量的全球经济格局变化趋势高度一致,且前者幅度更加剧烈,在很大程度上说明制造业的区域转移是刻画全球经济地理格局演化的主要影响因素,而全球各区域服务业份额的分布变化特征及趋势与各国经济总量份额的变化较为相似,同样是全球经济地理格局演化的重要驱动力;第三,从不同区域来看,东亚及太平洋地区在全球经济中所占比重的提升受到了来自制造业和服务业共同的推进,欧洲地区在全球经济中所占比重的逐步降低主要受到其服务业衰落的影响,北美地区在制造业占全球份额略有走低的情况下仍保持经济总量比重的基本稳定,这主要源于北美服务业持续稳定的强大实力。另外值得注意的是,欧美地区当前逐步推进的"再工业化"过程导致的产业回流可能是预测未来世界经济格局时需要考虑的重要因素。

Globalization has prompted several shifts in global economic structure.Based on the changes in the Share of GDP of different regions or nationsfrom historical data, this paper carried out a comparative analysis concerningthe share of the total economic size and the added value of different industriesof all the regions and nations. Combined with the analysis focusing onthe manufacturing and service industry, this paper explained the declining ofEurope and the fast development of the emerging economies on the industry level,which might reflect more detailed information about the historical trend.All in all, the main conclusions are as followed： 1） the global economicstructure presents a gradual trend that is from the single center as“core-periphery”structure in the traditional capitalist countries into multipolarpattern, showing that the single-center concentrating degree significantly re-duced and the decentralizing of the regional advantages and differences; 2） the basic trend of global manufacturing geographical pattern is highly consistent with the evolution of the total economic size, the service industry is still an important driving force of the evolution of the geographical structure; 3）the rise the proportion of East Asia and Pacific region＇s share in the global economy is enhanced by the co-promotion from the manufacturing and service industries,the proportion of Europe＇s share in the global economy gradually reduces by the reason of the fading of the service industry, and North America’s share of the manufacturing is relatively stable in the background of the global share is declined, which is mainly because of the strength of the service industry.