江西省入境旅游流时空演变研究

Temporal and Spatial Variation Research of Inbound Tourist Flow in Jiangxi

采用旅游流年际变动指数、年际集中指数、地理集中指数、基尼系数及空间重心模型,对2000年至2012年江西入境旅游流时空动态演变进行分析。结果表明:1入境旅游流年际波动较大,港澳客源市场表现最为稳定,其次是台湾和外国客源市场,港澳台近程入境旅游客源市场仍具有重要的开发价值,外国入境客源市场潜力还要进一步激发。2年际集中指数较高的美日韩等国,应在稳定基数效应的基础上,加强针对性营销;年际集中指数较低的新加坡、法国、俄罗斯等国,应进行重点开发,培育新兴市场。3港澳游客地理集中度高,外国游客呈现分散-集中趋势,为分散风险应加大对亚洲邻国市场的开拓力度;而城市入境旅游流空间分布相对均衡,客源结构更加完善,但由于交通、区位、资源禀赋、知名度及其客源国消费结构和水平等因素的影响,旅游流重心移动轨迹存在空间错位。

This paper made a systematic analysis of the temporal and spatialvariation of inbound tourism flow of Jiangxi province in 2000-2012 by applyingannual fluctuation index、annual intensity index、tourist origin index、ginicoefficient and spatial gravity model. results revealed that： ①Annual fluctuationindex of inbound tourism flow is larger, tourism market performance ofHong Kong and Macao is the most stable, followed by Taiwan and foreign touristmarket, and it is significant to exploit neighbour tourist markets of HongKong, Macao and Taiwan , also the foreign tourist markets potential should befurther stimulated. ②Annual intensity index is higher for American, Japan,South Korea and other countries, it is key to maintain the stable base effectand strengthen pertinence marketing; annual intensity index is lower for Singapore,France, Russia and other countries, it is important to focus on developingand cultivating the emerging markets. ③ Markets for Hong Kong andMacao are highly intensive, foreign tourist markets have a tendency to be decentralizedand intensive, it is important for Jiangxi to intensify the Asianneighbour markets to reduce risk; Inbound tourism flow distribution in citiesof Jiangxi province is relatively balanced, and the market structure is moreperfect. but gravity trail of tourism flow formed spatial dislocation due tothe influence of factors such as transportation, location, resource endowment,its popularity and tourists＇ consumption structure and level.