生育政策调整研究中存在的问题与反思

Rethinking the Problems in the Research of China's Family Planning Policy Adjustment

文章对生育政策调整研究过程中存在的基础数据、数学模型、参数假设的问题及研究结果的争论与分歧进行了探讨,指出中国现有人口普查、抽样调查数据在生育水平、独生子女总量、育龄妇女总量与结构等方面存在比较突出的矛盾和偏差。作者认为宏观人口模型并不适于单独二孩等生育政策调整研究,建议采用微观随机人口仿真模型解决数据质量和区间估计问题。文章进一步分析单独二孩生育政策和全面二孩生育政策可能存在的出生人口堆积情况,反思生育政策调整研究面临的问题、困难和解决的办法,指出今后中国生育政策调整研究应该注意的主要问题。

By examining the issues about data source,mathematic models,parameter assumption and different views in the research of family planning policy adjustment in China,this paper has pointed out that the population census and sampling survey data have some problems in estimating the indicator of total fertility rate,population size of only-child and the birth age women.It finds out that the macro simulation model is not suitable for the research of the two children policy adjustment and suggests that micro stochastic simulation model be used for the interval estimation and to improve data quality.Furthermore,the paper has explained the peak of new birth under the two children policy for couples.By rethinking the problems and difficulties of the policy adjustment,this paper has discussed basic issues of future research and provided some possible solutions.