从业人口年龄结构对中国工业经济增长的贡献度研究

A Study on the Contributions of Different Age Groups to China's Industrial Economic Growth

文章基于Lindh和Malmberg的引入年龄结构因子的经济增长模型,分析了2009~2010年的中国工业经济各子行业样本。结果显示,若将特定年龄组对经济增长率的贡献度视为一种生产率,那么,在控制行业类型、区域因素后,该生产率随年龄呈现临近两端异常下沉的倒U形;在这个形态中,年轻劳动者没有显著的正向经济贡献,而中壮年劳动者具有对工业经济增长最大的贡献率,中壮年劳动力比例较高很可能促进了中西部地区的工业增长率。

Based on lindh-Malmberg's age structure economic growth model,this paper researches the sample of sub-sectors of China's industiy in 2009 and 2010.The results show that,if the growth contribution of each individual age group is regarded as a measure of productivity,after controlling industry type and area factors,die contribution presents a hump shape with two abnormal drops near the endpoint groups.The shape indicates that the young workers have no significant effect,and the middle-age workers make the highest contribution to China's industrial economy.The higher proportion of middle-age is able to lead in higher industrial growth rate in middle and west regions.