中国农业碳排放的空间效应研究

The spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China-Based on Spatial Durbin Model

农业碳排放是我国温室气体排放的重要组成部分。已有文献在探讨我国农业碳排放时大多忽略区域之间的空间效应,从而导致研究结论缺乏说服力。文中运用空间杜宾模型,采用1993-2010年省际农业碳排放数据对我国农业碳排放的空间效应进行了研究。研究结论如下:我国各省农业碳排放存在显著的空间效应,表现在农业碳排放存在空间集聚性、空间正相关性、空间异质性和空间溢出效应;农业经济增长导致农业碳排放量增加,农业科技投入和农民文化素质则具有减排效应,而且这三个影响因素对邻近地区农业碳排放的作用大于本地区。

Agricultural carbon emission was an important part of greenhouse gases in China. The existing litera- tures which analyzed agricultural carbon emission mostly ignored the spatial effects among regions, leading to bi- ased conclusions. This study calculated the agricultural carbon emissions in China during 1993 -2010 with Spa- tial Durbin Model （SDM）. The conclusions are as follows ： （ 1 ） there were significant spatial effects of agricul- tural carbon emissions among provinces. The spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions were represented in following four aspects： spatial agglomeration, spatial correlations of agricultural carbon emissions between re- gimes, spatial heterogeneities of agricultural carbon emissions among provinces, and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China. （2） While the growth of agricultural economic increased the emissions of agricultural carbon, the investment in science and technology and the education of farmers reduced the emissions of agricultural carbon. Specially, three independent variables discussed above had more effects in adjacent prov- inces than local.