中国能源碳足迹生态压力变动的因素分解研究

Factor decomposition analysis on the energy carbon footprint ecological pressure change in China

文中在相关能源碳足迹研究的基础上,提出了能源碳足迹生态压力(EPICF)的概念,并对1996-2010年中国能源碳足迹生态压力的动态变化进行了定量分析,结果显示,中国EPICF从0.97hm2/hm2增加到1.96hm2/hm2,增加了2.021倍,现有森林和草地的面积不能够满足日益增加的能源碳足迹。之后,利用LMDI法对其进行因素分解,结果表明,森林和草地的人口压力、能源结构和能源强度3个因素对EPICF的增加起到抑制的作用,经济发展因素起到促进的作用。其中,能源强度因素对EPICF下降的贡献值和贡献率最大,其次是森林和草地的人口压力因素。在影响EPICF变化的诸多因素中,经济因素的促进作用超过其它的抑制因素,经济发展带来的生态压力问题将更加严峻。

Based on related studies of energy carbon footprint, we proposed the concept of EPICF （energy carbon footprint ecological pressure） and made a quantitative analysis on the dynamic change in China＇s energy carbon footprint ecological pressure from 1996 to 2010. As the result shows, during this period, Chinag energy carbon footprint ecological pressure had increased to 1.96hm2/hm2, which was 2.021 times of that in 1996. The existing forests and grasslands cannot effectively mitigate the increasing energy carbon footprint. Then, we conducted a de- composition analysis with LMDI method and found that all of the three factors： energy structure, energy intensity and the population pressure of forest and grassland contributed to the decrease of EPICF, while economic develop- ment played a positive role. In detail, energy intensity did best in the fall of EPICF, being followed by the popula- tion pressure of forest and grassland. Among all the influencing factors of EPICF, the positive role of economy o- verweighs other inhibiting factors. Economic development deteriorated the problem of ecological pressure.