呼图壁河径流过程对气候变化的响应

Response of Hutubi river runoff process on climate change

为了研究呼图壁河径流过程对气候变化的响应，文中对石门水文站和呼图壁县气象局1978—2011年日径流、降水、温度数据进行了统计分析，采用Mann—Kendll法对年天然径流进行了突变趋势检验，并将变点前后的径流量与流域气温、降水进行相关性分析，得出：（1）年径流量在1987年发生突变，变点前呈下降趋势，变点后呈上升趋势，其中1998—2004年上升显著。（2）变点后径流量年际变幅增大、枯水年变少；径流量年内变化不均匀、变幅大。（3）温度、降水与径流量均呈正相关，相关系数均在0．58以上，且温度对径流变化的贡献率更大，这说明高山冰雪融水是呼图壁河的主要补给方式，随着高山区冰雪储量的减少，呼图壁河的生态安全将会受到很大威胁。

The daily data of runoff, precipitation and temperature from 1978 to 2011 in Shimen hydrological sta- tion and weather bureau of Hutubi county were used to proceed the statistic analysis, method of Mann - Kendall was applied to analyze the natural runoff trend in Hutubi river and inspection of mutation point, and the correla- tion between runoff and temperature and precipitation. The result showed the change point of annual runoff for Hutubi river occurred in 1977, runoff in the former period showed decreasing trend and in the latter period showed increasing trend, among which, remarkable increase occurred from 1998 to 2004. In the latter period, inter annual vary range of runoff increased and low f/ow year decreased ; inner - annua/changes of runoff showed uneven and big varied range. Runoff with temperature and precipitation showed positive correlation, all the cor- relation coefficient was above o. 58, and the contribution rate of temperature was greater than that of rainfall on runoff, which showed that ice- snow melting was the main form for feeding of Hutubi river, as the ice -snow storaze in alnine zone decreases. Hutubi river eco -system safety will face threaten.