考虑情绪因素的群体性突发事件等级依赖期望效用模型

Rank-Dependent Expected Utility Model of Unexpected Incidents Considering Emotional Factor

群体性突发事件双方非理性的情绪因素使其决策和执行过程都会产生行为偏差。考虑双方群体情绪因素对于事态演化的影响,首先,构建了强势群体与弱势群体的等级依赖期望效用函数;然后,分析了双方在不同情绪下纳什均衡解的存在性。研究表明,考虑双方情绪因素后出现了丰富多样的博弈均衡结果,导致了事态的不同演化方向。首先,当社会弱势群体的抗争能力较弱,强势群体带有较为强烈的悲观情绪时,双方将会达成最为理想的纳什均衡(合作,妥协)。其次,当社会弱势群体的抗争能力较强时,如果双方都是乐观情绪,则任何一方的乐观情绪都有助于增大己方的合作(或妥协)概率;如果双方分别处于乐观和悲观情绪中,则任何一方情绪强度的增大都将降低合作(或妥协)概率。

The irrational emotion factors of mass incidents result the behavior deviation of the decision-making and implementation process. Considering the effect of emotional factors on the evolution of situation, first, we build the rank-dependent expected utility functions of superiority and vulnerable groups. Then,we analyze the existence of Nash equilibrium of two sides under different emotions. The result shows that there are abundant and various equilibrium results considering the emotional factors, which lead to a different evolutionary direction of events. Firstly, when the fighting ability of vulnerable group is weak and the superiority group has more intense pessimism, the two sides will reach the most ideal Nash equilibrium（cooperation, compromise）.Secondly, when the fighting ability to the vulnerable group is strong, if both sides are optimistic, any optimism party will increase the probability of one＇s cooperation（or compromise）; if the two sides are separately in optimism and pessimism, the enlargement of emotional intensity in any one parties will reduce the probability of cooperation（or compromise）.