基于土地综合承载力的西安市适度人口测度

Optimum Population Measure on Basis of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Xi'an City

[目的]测度和分析西安市2001—2011年的适度人口及其变化情况,探讨人口承载力变化的特征与原因,提出优化对策。[方法]食品承载力模型、生态足迹模型、改进的经济承载力模型和改进的综合承载力模型。[结果]2001—2011年,西安市的适度人口数量及结构呈现出阶段性变化;2004年开始,西安市人口承载赤字一直存在,并在经历一个快速增长阶段后出现缓和趋势;西安市经济人口承载力较强,而食品和生态人口承载力不足。[结论]提高区域综合承载力,土地承载是基础,经济承载是关键,生态承载是限制。

[Objective] Measure and analyze the optimum population of Xi＇an City from 2001 to 2011, in order to discuss the characteristics and the cause of the change in the population carrying capacity, and to put forward the optimization countermeasures. [Methods] Four models, which are food carrying capacity, eco- logical footprint, improved economy carrying capacity and improved comprehensive carrying capacity were used. [Results] The population size and structure of Xi＇an City presented periodic characteristics in different phases from 2001 to 2011. Since 2004, population carrying deficit has always existed, and with this situa- tion, the trend of it became smooth after a rapid growth stage. The economy carrying capacity of Xi＇an City was stronger, however, the food and ecological population carrying capacity was insufficient. [Conclusion] In the process of improving the area comprehensive carrying capacity of Xi＇ an City, the land carrying capacity is the base, the economy carrying capacity is the key point, and the ecology carrying capacity is the limitation.