精明增长理念下低碳经济发展与城市土地集约利用动态耦合研究——以石家庄市为例

A Study on Dynamic Coupling Between Low-carbon Economy Development and Urban Intensive Land-use Based on Smart Growth Concept——A Case Study of Shijiazhuang City

[目的]通过对2005—2011年河北省石家庄市低碳经济发展和城市土地集约利用的动态演变情况进行实证分析和测算,探究两大系统的耦合互动关系及其耦合协调度发展趋势。[方法]以"精明增长"理念为指导,以石家庄市作为样本区域,引入物理学中的耦合度概念,构建低碳经济发展和城市土地集约利用的综合评价指标体系及其耦合协调度模型。[结果]两大系统大体趋于同步发展,具有明显的正相关性,表明二者存在良好的耦合互动关系;耦合协调水平由2005年的严重失调阶段发展到2011年的优质协调阶段,整体呈现由低级向高级过渡、耦合互动效应增强的趋势,客观地诠释了石家庄市低碳经济发展和土地集约利用的发展动向。[结论]伴随时间的推进和政策建议的相继落实,二者耦合协调关系将逐渐优化。

[Objective] To make an empirical analysis and estimate on dynamic coupling evolution in Shijiazhuang City using the data from 2005 to 2011, in order to explore the coupling interaction relationship and the development trend of coupling coordination degree between the two systems. [Methods] Guided by the concept of ＂smart growth＂, a comprehensive evaluation index was established and a coupling coordination degree model was built by introducing the concept of coupling in physics. [Results] The two systems generally presented a synchronized development tendency and an obvious positive correlation. It can proved that there was a good coupling interaction between low-carbon economy development and urban intensive land-use. The coupling coordination level developed from serious imbalance in 2005 to good coordination in 2011. It presen- ted that the level transited from junior to senior and the coupling interaction effect enhanced gradually. These results objectively explained the development trend of low-carbon economy and intensive land-use in Shijiazhuang City. [Conclusion] With the advancement of time and policy implementation, the coupling coordination rela- tionships would be gradually optimized.