我国农产品贸易与农民收入问题的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Chinese Agricultural Products Trade and Farmers' Income Issues

本文利用1985-2013年的统计数据,在构建VAR模型的基础上,从现代协整理论出发,考察了我国农民收入的增长与农产品的进、出口之间的长期动态关系。分析结果表明:从长期看,各变量之间存在长期的稳定均衡关系,农产品进、出口都是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因。因此要积极推进发展农产品的对外贸易,以提高农民收入水平。

On the basis of constructing VAR model and modem co-integration theory, the paper studies long-term and dynamic association between the increase of Chinese farmers＇ income and the import and export of agricultural products by making use of the statistical data from 1985 to 2013. The result shows： a long-term stable equilibrium relationship exists among variables and the import and export of agricultural products are Granger causes of the increase of farmers＇ income in the long term. Therefore, we should actively promote the development of foreign trade of agricultural products, in order to improve farmers＇ income levels.