四川省服务贸易出口影响因素的实证研究——基于新型接近灰色关联度视角

基于2005—2013年数据,运用新型接近灰色关联模型分析四川省服务贸易出口与其影响因素之间的关系。结果表明:货物贸易、外商直接投资、服务贸易开放度、人力资本和服务业发展水平都对四川省服务贸易出口增长速度产生正向影响,其中,货物贸易对服务贸易出口影响程度最大,其他因素影响程度依次递减。并提出保持货物贸易健康稳定增长,充分发挥货物贸易对服务贸易的拉动作用;提升服务贸易开放度,积极承接服务产业转移;优化外商投资结构等对策建议。

The paper set up the new grey nearness incidence model to test on the influencing factors of service trade exports based on the data from 2005 to 2013 in Sichuan province. The results show that the good trade,real FDI,the openness degree of service trade, the human capital and the development of service sector have significant effect on the trade export of services, the good trade have the greatest degree of influence to the services trade exports in them , the other factors has descending effect on it in order. It puts forward suggestions to maintain the healthy and stable growth in goods, give full pay to the pulling effect of trade in goods to service trade,imporve the service trade openness, actively undertake industrial transfer services, optimize the structure of foreign investment, and so on.