国内卫生人力需求预测研究现状分析

An overview of domestic studies on demand forecasting of health human resources

目的:通过对国内卫生人力资源需求预测的研究文献进行分析,了解国内卫生人力资源需求预测对象、方法及未来的发展趋势。方法:检索万方数据库和CNKI两个数据库,严格遵照文献纳入排除标准,对文献进行分类和统计分析。结果:纳入文献70篇,其中综述性文献12篇,方法应用类文献58篇。结果显示:我国卫生人力需求预测的研究起步较晚,预测方法种类繁多,并不统一,虽然开发出了本国自己的预测模型(如灰色系统模型),但方法应用上并没有创新和突破。结论:为提高我国卫生人力资源预测水平,我国卫生人力资源预测需进一步细化,重视以专科为对象进行预测,研究开发基于胜任力的卫生人力资源预测模型。

Objectives： To summarize the objects, methods of HHR（health human resource）demand forecast and analyze its future trends by literature review. Methods： Relevant literatures were searched from Wanfang and CNKI databases. Strictly following the inclusion criteria, literature were screened and classified to have a statistics analysis. Results： 70 papers were included, covering 12 reviews and 58 research papers. The research of HHR demand forecast started late in China with variety of forecasting methods but no unification. There still has no creation and breakthrough for the applied methods although we have formed our native forecasting patterns（e.g. gray system model）. Conclusion： We should develop health human resource forecasting patterns based on competency as well as different specified to improve the forecast accuracy.