美国量化宽松货币政策对我国通货膨胀的影响——基于VAR模型

Analysis on Impact of the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on Inflation in China

次贷危机造成美国经济长期低迷和失业率上升,为了刺激本国经济美国采取了量化宽松货币政策,投放了大量流动性货币。这使得我国通货膨胀水平受到了一定的冲击。通过构造VAR模型,检验美国货币供应量、中国货币供应量、国际大宗商品价格、中美汇率等四个变量与我国通货膨胀之间的相互关系,实证结果表明美国量化宽松货币政策对我国通货膨胀有刺激作用。其中外部影响因素中中美双边汇率对我国通货膨胀影响程度最大,国际大宗商品价格的影响程度则次之。

The United States has witnessed the economic downturn and rising unemployment for a long time since the subprime crisis erupted in 2008,so the United States adopted quantitative easing monetary policy to stimulate its economy by launching a large amount of currency liquidity which has impacted China＇s inflation has been to some extent.By constructing the VAR model,this paper examines four variations and the mutual relationship of China＇s inflation,such as the money supply,China＇s money supply,international commodity prices,the currency exchange rate between two countries.The empirical results show that the quantitative easing monetary policy stimulates inflation in China,the bilateral exchange rate is the second biggest cause of China＇s inflation.