从巴以冲突透析中东政治动荡的根源

Insight into the Origins of Upheaval in the Middle East from The Current Israel-Palestine Conflict

在中东剧变大潮中,埃及政权两度更迭。穆斯林兄弟会在埃及政坛的崛起使以色列对安全环境深感担忧,埃及军方推翻穆尔西政府缓解了以色列的安全之忧。哈马斯试图打破封锁的努力未能取得成功。阿拉伯国家在巴以问题上的分歧公开化,形成支持和打压哈马斯的两个对立阵营。巴以问题是中东政治动荡的突出表现,但中东政治动荡的根源绝非仅仅是巴以问题。我们应更多地从中东历史发展的轨迹中寻找造成今日中东政治动荡的根源,不能一成不变地把中东政治动荡全部归咎于巴以问题。实现中东的稳定必须以实现3个层面的和谐为基础:一是中东国家间的和谐相处,二是伊斯兰教派间的和谐相处,三是不同文明间的和谐相处。否则,即便巴以双方就巴勒斯坦最终地位问题达成协议,中东地区也难以实现稳定。

Egypt＇s regime has changed twice in the upheaval during past several years. Israel deeply worried about security environment because of the rising of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt. Egyptian military overthrew Morsi government eased Israel＇s security worries. Hamas failed to break the blockade. Arab countries are divided into two opposing camps over the Israeli -Palestinian issue. One supported Hamas to attack Israel, and the other opposed and wanted Hamas to be weakened. Palestinian - Israeli conflict is the source of political instability in the Middle East, but the origins of instability in the Middle East is not just the Israeli - Palestinian issue. The real root of today＇ s political turmoil in the Middle East should be found from the perspective of development. The stability in the Middle East ought to be achieved through harmonious relations on three aspects： harmonious coexistence of countries, sectarians, civilizations. Otherwise, even if Palestinians and Israelis reach an agreement on the final status of Palestine, it is difficult to achieve stability in the Middle East