国家金融安全动态预警比较分析(1992～2011年)

Comparative analysis of dynamic warning of National Financial Security(1992～2011)

文章从先导性与免疫性两大维度构建了后金融危机时代国家金融安全预警指标体系，通过选取KLR信号分析法，从先导性、免疫性与总体警情3个方面对我国1992～2011年金融安全的警情警度进行了动态定量测算分析。研究得出：1992～2011年我国金融安全程度处于从重警、中警到轻警、无警逐渐上升的过程；依据我国金融安全警度值可将我国金融安全警情划分为有警时期（1992～2003年）与无警时期（2004～2011年）两个明显时期，其中有警时期包括重警度时期（1993年）、中警度时期（1992年、1994～1996年、1998～2001年）、轻警度时期（1997年、2002～2003年）；2001～2011年我国金融体制建设保障能力不断增强，银行机构风险快速下降，对外债务风险持续改善，宏观经济风险得到合理控制，这些是促使国家金融安全程度提升的关键因素。

This paper suggests an early warning system for China's national financial security along two dimensions of pre-warning and immunity in the post-crisis era.By adopting KLR signal analysis method,the severity of the financial security conditions during1992 ~ 2012 has been dynamically and quantitatively analyzed from the perspectives of pre-warning,immunity and overall security condition.It can be concluded that the general security condition in this period followed a positive trend,as the severity level relaxed from being severe,mild,light and then to normal.Two distinctive periods can be noted,being a warning period(1992 ~2003) and a non-warning period(2004 ~ 2011).The warning period may further be classified into severe(1993),mild(1992,1994 ~ 1996,1998 ~ 2001) and light(1997,2002 ~ 2003).The period of 2001 to 2011 saw an improved financial security condition due to few key factors,including continuous enhancement of the constructive and supportive capability of financial system,rapid reduction of the risks of banking sector,continuous improvement of external debt risks and rational management of macroeconomic risks are the key factors which promote the degree of china's financial security.