欧元区及德国汇率错位问题研究

Research on Exchange Rate Misalignment in Euro zone and Germany

文章从欧元汇率错位的形成机制出发,在分析均衡汇率相关构成因素的基础上提取相关经济变量,采用行为均衡汇率的研究路径计算得出欧元区和欧元区德国的汇率错位情况。研究结果显示,欧元区整体汇率长期被高估,但受到欧元区内部结构失衡的影响,这种整体错位并未能得到及时纠正。美元走强和欧洲央行量化宽松为欧元币值回调提供了一个契机,当前欧元大幅贬值可被视为欧元币值趋向均衡汇率的回归过程。因此,文章也从另一个角度分析了欧元大幅贬值的内在逻辑。尽管如此,由于欧元区内部结构性问题的存在,即便当前欧元区整体汇率回归均衡,但德国仍将享有非对称性汇率竞争优势。

The article analyzes the exchange rate misalignment in the euro area and Germany respectively with a BEER approach.Empirical findings show an imbalanced misalignment between the member states,and German euro was particularly undervalued as compared to the euro area average.To some extent,Germany's relative undervaluation has promoted its competitiveness and possibly caused the current trade imbalance in the euro area.Furthermore,the current continuous depreciation of the euro also indicates a process of exchange rate rebalancing.However,the article also predicts that an imbalanced competitiveness between member states in the euro zone is unavoidable in the foreseeable future.