安徽省农业经济增长与农业面源污染关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research of the Relationship between Agricultural Economic Growth and Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in Anhui Province

选取安徽省1990～2012年农业面源污染指标及经济增长数据,基于EKC理论,验证安徽省农业经济增长与农业面源污染之间是否存在＂倒U型＂关系。研究表明：人均农林牧渔产值与单位面积化肥流失量、单位面积农药流失量、单位面积农膜残留量之间存在显著＂倒U型＂曲线,且进入转折期,而畜禽粪便排放量呈现＂倒U型＋U型＂曲线,现在处于＂U型＂曲线的上升阶段。最后根据研究结果,针对安徽省农业面源污染的实际情况,借鉴国内外成功经验,提出有益于经济增长和环境保护的政策建议。

The data of agricultural non-point source pollution emissions and agricultural economic growth in the years1990-2012 in Anhui Province are selected.Based EKC theory,we verify whether the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province showed inverted U-shape.The research showed that the curve which represents the relationship between the agricultural gross output value per capital and the fertilizer loss of per unit area,the pesticide loss of per unit area,the agricultural film residue of per unit area were a typical inverted U-shape curve,sometimes it is the turning period of these pollution source;but the curve which represents the relationship between the agricultural gross output value per capital and the manure emissions of livestock and poultry was a inverted U shape＋U shape curve,and now at the stage of rising U-shape curve.At the end,according to the analysis result and the actual situation of agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province,and lessons from successful experiences at home and abroad,some policy suggestions that were beneficial to the economic growth and environmental protection are put forward.