基于扩散指数模型的四川生态旅游业发展景气预测

Prediction of development boom of eco-tourism industry in Sichuan province based on diffusion index model

运用等权一致扩散指数模型,分析了四川生态旅游发展的市场前景和景气循环周期。结果表明：（1）四川省生态旅游业虽然经历了2008年的短暂低谷期,但从总体上看处于持续增长的态势;（2）2007-2012年四川省生态旅游业经历了＂景气-不景气-景气-不景气-景气＂的循环过程。短期内,四川生态旅游业会持续当前的景气状态。

The market prospect and boom loop cycle of ecological tourism development in Sichuan province were predicted by using equal-weighted and coincident diffusion index method. The results show that：（1） Though Sichuan province ecological tourism had experienced a short low valley period in 2008, but it was keeping a continuous growing trend on the whole;（2） from 2007 to 2012, the ecological tourism industry in Sichuan province had experienced a cycle of ＂boom → recession → boom → recession → boom＂. The conclusion is that in the short term, Sichuan＇s ecological tourism industry will maintain the same as the current boom state.